Democracy in Ashes, How the SAPES Fire Mirrors Zimbabwe’s Political Decay

By Staff Reporter

The flames that tore through the Southern Africa Political Economy Series (SAPES) Trust offices in Harare just after midnight did more than consume brick and timber — they reignited old fears about Zimbabwe’s governance, democracy, and the ruling elite’s intolerance for dissent.

Coming barely hours before a scheduled press conference to oppose a planned constitutional amendment that could extend President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s rule until 2030, the suspected arson attack has drawn widespread condemnation and suspicion of political motivation.

The fire, which gutted the SAPES Trust seminar room, a space renowned for hosting public debates, policy discussions, and civic engagements, has been described by many as a targeted attempt to silence critical voices challenging ZANU PF’s so-called “Agenda 2030”.

SAPES Trust Director, Dr. Ibbo Mandaza, said the incident bore all the hallmarks of an organised assault aimed at intimidation.

“This is to announce that there’s been another arson attack, the first was in August 2023 ahead of the elections, at SAPES Trust at midnight, with the PanAfrika Restaurant on fire and the security staff overtaken by a group of armed attackers,” Mandaza revealed on his X (formerly Twitter) account.

“This is hardly a coincidence. The main target was the SAPES Seminar Room, our regular meeting venue, which has been gutted to the ground. The attackers abducted the guard on duty after locking up the gate with two padlocks.”

Despite the chaos, Mandaza vowed that the National Press Conference against ZANU PF’s 2030 Agenda would proceed as planned, a show of defiance that many Zimbabweans hailed as courageous.

At the heart of the growing political storm is a controversial push, allegedly backed by elements within ZANU PF, to amend the Constitution and allow President Mnangagwa to remain in office beyond the two-term limit set by both the national and party constitutions.

The Constitution clearly stipulates that presidential elections are held every five years and that no individual may serve more than two terms in office. Mnangagwa’s final term legally ends in 2028, but talk of extending his rule to 2030 has sparked outrage across the political divide.

Political analysts have accused the President of failing to live up to his self-styled image as a constitutionalist. Many have contrasted him with his predecessor, the late Robert Gabriel Mugabe, whom they described as more principled in respecting party procedures, despite his own authoritarian record.

“Mnangagwa has shown little regard for constitutionalism,” political analyst Joulous Mawarire wrote on his X timeline. “The heavy police presence and intimidation tactics at SAPES Trust clearly show who the perpetrators are and what they fear, the truth.”

According to witnesses, the fire broke out around 12:40 a.m., with a group of armed men storming the premises. They reportedly overpowered the security guard, who was later abducted. The building’s gates were padlocked from the outside before the attackers fled into the night.

This is not the first time SAPES has come under attack. A similar incident occurred in August 2023, just weeks before the general elections, when another suspicious fire broke out under similar circumstances.

Top lawyer Thabani Mpofu condemned the attack, calling it “an act of cowardice”.

“This is just not right. This cowardly act must be condemned in the strongest terms possible. How can we live in a country that fears words?” Mpofu wrote on X.

Self-exiled former Cabinet Minister Saviour Kasukuwere, now a vocal government critic, also weighed in, “This is shameful. A leopard cannot change its spots. We have to choose hope over fear,” he wrote.

While Mnangagwa has publicly dismissed any intention to extend his rule beyond 2028, insiders say he has done little to restrain loyalists who are openly campaigning for him to stay in power until 2030.

The succession debate has already split the ruling party, with factions forming around Mnangagwa and his deputy, Retired General Constantino Chiwenga, who is widely tipped to succeed him.

Analysts warn that this internal power struggle could plunge the party, and the nation, into renewed political instability and potential violence.

“The calls for Mnangagwa to go beyond 2028 are not about leadership continuity,” the war veterans said. “They are a calculated strategy to block Chiwenga’s rise and protect certain political and business interests tied to Mnangagwa’s inner circle.”

Amnesty International wrote, “The arson attack on SAPES Trust premises, the home of Gilbert Bgwende, and the abduction of a security guard manning SAPES Trust premises ahead of a civil society-organised press conference have a chilling effect on freedoms of assembly and expression. This is the second time SAPES Trust premises have been burnt, a disturbing trend that is meant to silence dissenting voices. We call on authorities to urgently and thoroughly investigate these attacks and ensure that the freedoms of expression and assembly are upheld”.

“The events at SAPES Trust echo a dark pattern that has long haunted Zimbabwe, a pattern where dissent is met with intimidation, and where fire, abductions, and fear often precede key political turning points,” noted Amnesty International.

For many, the government’s “old habits” are once again on full display. And as the country edges closer to another crucial political moment, will Zimbabwe ever break free from its cycle of repression, or are the flames at SAPES a sign that history is repeating itself, once again?

Meanwhile, the Amnesty International, joining a growing chorus of opposition figures and human rights groups, last week accused the Tanzanian authorities of intensifying efforts to silence dissent, allegations the government swiftly dismissed. The U.S.-based crisis-monitoring organisation Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) observed that Tanzania’s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), appeared determined to preserve its image as the last surviving hegemonic liberation movement in southern Africa. The group noted that CCM was keen to avoid the electoral setbacks recently experienced by its former liberation peers in South Africa, Namibia, and Zimbabwe.