Mozambique Escalating Tension, A Regional Threat.

ZESN and the ESN-SA hope peace prevails in the aftermath of the election

By Post reporter

Mozambique is teetering on the edge of chaos, grappling with both a lingering jihadist insurgency and the tumultuous aftermath of a contentious election. The October 9 presidential vote was a showdown between Daniel Chapo, the Frente de Libertaçao de Moçambique (FRELIMO) candidate, and Venâncio Mondlane, a 50-year-old pastor and former radio host who ran as an independent anti-establishment candidate backed by Partido Optimista pelo Desenvolvimento de Moçambique (PODEMOS) ¹.

Mondlane’s bold move to declare victory, citing his team’s partial parallel count, sparked tension. Despite providing little evidence, he urged supporters to protest and stage strikes, capitalizing on allegations of irregularities and fraud from local and international observers ¹. The attorney general warned Mondlane to refrain from inciting unrest, but he persisted, using social media to rally his hundreds of thousands of followers.

Tragedy struck on October 18 when unknown gunmen killed Mondlane’s lawyer, Elvino Dias, and Podemos parliamentary candidate Paulo Guambe, as they traveled together in Maputo. This brazen attack drew global condemnation, including from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the US, and the European Union ¹.

The situation escalated further on October 21, when nationwide protests were violently dispersed by security forces, who fired live ammunition at demonstrators and tear-gassed journalists interviewing Mondlane in Maputo. Mondlane has since fled to a secret hideout, possibly in neighboring South Africa, from where he livestreams talks to his Facebook followers ¹.

The official election results, announced three days later, declared Chapo the winner with 71% of the vote, while Mondlane secured 20%. FRELIMO strengthened its parliamentary majority, winning 195 of 250 seats, and retained all eleven provincial governor positions.

However, the recommendations by observers include, the Missions provided recommendations across various domains, highlighting a clear pathway towards improving the electoral process in Mozambique. They emphasized the importance of timely legislative amendments, robust voter education, credible electoral administration, media fairness, transparency in results management, and inclusivity. Implementing these recommendations can significantly enhance the integrity and effectiveness of electoral processes, ultimately fostering greater public trust and participation.

Since the double assassination and the announcement that Chapo will be Mozambique’s next president, frustrations among Mondlane’s supporters with Frelimo’s rule have morphed into popular outcry against Frelimo’s rule, on a scale unprecedented in the country’s recent history. Several opposition parties – other than Podemos – have joined Mondlane’s calls to protest. Demonstrations have taken place in most provinces, with Maputo, Nampula and Zambezia among the hotspots.

In an interesting twist of events, Zimbabwe has been identified, in the middle of the fiasco, triggering uncertainty and chaos in alleged rigging tricks which the Southern African country has been accused of since the formation and participation of opposition political party the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by Morgan Tsvangirai. Tsvangirai won the election in Zimbabwe and the post election became an unforgettable period for most Zimbabweans under the leadership of Robert Mugabe.

A Truck driver told this publication that it was no longer safe to identify yourself as a Zimbabwean in Mozambique as they are being accused of rigging the elections, a modus operand linked to the governing party. Zimbabweans in other countries bemoaned the current situation as a danger and threat to their lives. it is alleged Mozambique’s ruling party rigged the election with over 300 000 Zimbabweans participating in their elections.

With an estimate of over 40 people being killed during the unrest, neighboring countries borders were closed, possible threat to trade via Beira sea port.

The government has also suspended mobile internet on several occasions. On 12 November, police chief Bernardino Rafael called the protest movement “urban terrorism” with “the clear intention of altering the democratically established Mozambican constitutional order”. The same day, the attorney general announced 208 proceedings had been launched against the “moral and material” perpetrators of violence, likely including Mondlane.

Namibia and Botswana also held their elections, which saw the opposition taking the lead against the former leader, Mokgweetsi Eric Keabetswe Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) shared a report to that effect.

“Despite minor logistical and technical challenges, the Mission noted that the elections were conducted in a generally peaceful and transparent atmosphere. The efficient management and adherence to polling procedures, the participation of political party agents, satisfactory gender representation among polling officials, and the involvement of youth contributed to the smooth conduct of the elections. The Mission concludes that the Botswana IEC was prepared and adhered to the electoral laws and, to a large extent, to the SADC Principles and Guidelines on the Conduct of Democratic Elections. ZESN and the ESN-SA hope peace prevails in the aftermath of the election

SADC countries are expecting member states to discuss the growing security threats in the African Region and closure of democratic processes, inclusivity and tolerance.